I guess I should have seen it coming. After all the Redskins are...well, the Redskins! After an inspiring 3-1 start, the Skins have lost their past three games, the latest loss being to the Buffalo Bills, 23-0. Offensively, they are struggling, which seems to be the same old story every season. Inconsistency at the quarterback position is a major part of that. Rex Grossman threw four picks against the Eagles before being benched in favor of John Beck, who looks like a more athletic Conan O'Brien. Unfortunately, Beck is not the answer either...at least not from what I have seen so far. He struggled to find chemistry with his receivers against Carolina. In the Bills game, he was sacked NINE times. Some of those sacks were the result of indecisiveness on his part and holding onto the ball too long. And n the entire offense is being systematically decimated by injuries. Tim Hightower is out for the season with a torn ACL. Santana Moss is out 5-7 weeks with a hand injury. And key members of the O-line are either out for the season or for the next several weeks. On the defensive side, the Skins are giving up way too many rushing yards and other big plays the past two games, something they did not do in the first four games. So that cautious optimism we Redskins fans had a couple weeks ago has started to give way to the harsh reality that the current version of the Skins resembles those of the recent past.
Before the season, I talked about how the Skins should basically tank this entire season and hopefully get the first pick in next year's draft, thereby allowing them to select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who is overwhelmingly considered to be the next great NFL QB. After the 3-1 start, I began to believe that maybe that wouldn't be necessary. As long as Mike Shanahan had the offense clicking, like in the first four games, maybe they didn't NEED Luck. And the draft should be full of potentially good to great QB prospects, such as Landry Jones (Oklahoma), Robert Griffin III (Baylor) and Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma St.), among others. The Skins will surely be able to draft a decent quarterback next year. However, none of them have the "sure bet" status of Andrew Luck. So it would be great if the Skins could be bad enough to get the No. 1 overall pick. But I think they have already won too many games to do that, seeing as there are still two winless teams in the league, the Colts and Dolphins. In summary, the Skins are so horrible a franchise that they can't even SUCK enough to do what is best for their long-term future.
However, there may still be a chance to get that coveted Andrew Luck pick. The team that is currently in position to have the first pick in the draft is the Indianapolis Colts. They are 0-8, and by far the worst team in the league. Everyone wants to give them a pass for being so bad this year because Peyton Manning is out for likely the entire season recovering from his neck injury. The hope is that Manning will fully recover from it and be back next year with his hands under Jeff Saturday's ass. If the Colts happen to get the first pick in the 2011 Draft, they have quite the dilemma. Before the season, the Colts re-signed Manning to a five-year contract. That means they have made a commitment to Manning, and Manning to the Colts. If Manning is healthy, are they really going to use the number one pick to draft Andrew Luck? As long as Manning can play at the level he is capable of, he will be the man in Indy. Andrew Luck is not the sort of QB you draft with the first pick and then let ride the pine for three or four years. The team that selects Luck is one that desperately needs a quarterback and who would start Luck in his rookie season. A healthy Manning means the Colts would not be that team. However, if it is discovered that due to his neck injury not ever fully healing, and he has to retire, then the Colts would absolutely choose Luck, and be so happy they were horrible in 2011.
So what does all this have to do with the Redskins? Well, let's say for the sake of argument that Peyton Manning's neck is just fine after this season, and Colts' management decide they are not going to draft Andrew Luck because 1) Peyton is their man and 2) Andrew Luck probably wouldn't want to play for a team that already has a franchise quarterback (he doesn't want to be Aaron Rodgers). In that case, I would imagine the Colts would put that number one overall pick up for grabs and give it to the highest bidder. I could see a team like Washington, or Miami, or Seattle saying "Hey Colts! We will give you all of our picks in the draft this year, plus our first round pick next year in exchange for the number one pick". That would be the way to go for the Colts, seeing as they need so much help in other areas (defense, running game). Having all those picks plus their own would help them shore up their team. It would also give the Redskins, Dolphins or Seahawks the franchise quarterback they so desperately need! So by being so bad this year, the Colts have put themselves in a great position, either way. If Manning comes back, they can get so many draft picks to fill the plethora of team needs that have been exposed by Manning's absence this year. If Manning doesn't come back, they use the first pick to draft Luck! So as long as the Colts continue to be the worst team in the league, that No. 1 overall pick is UP FOR GRABS! So here are the five teams not from Indianapolis that would be most likely to trade anything and everything to get their paws on the Andrew Luck Pick:
5) Arizona Cardinals (1-6): There were high hopes in Glendale this year, with the signing of Kevin Kolb, who was supposed to be a stabilizing force at the quarterback position. However, in seven games he has 8 TD passes and 8 interceptions, and is only completing 57 percent of his passes. The Cardinals' management has to decide whether or not Kolb is the future for this team, and he is just having growing pains in his first full season as a starting QB. As a team, the Cardinals rank 21st in total offense, 20th in passing, and 26th in rushing (would be higher if Ryan Williams hadn't gotten injured in the preseason). The question is: What would the Cards have to give up to get the Luck pick? Larry Fitzgerald? Probably too steep a price.
4) Washington Redskins (3-4): And I'm not just picking them because I'm a Redskins fan! The Skins have not had a "franchise" quarterback in forever. In the 22 years I have been watching them, the names at quarterback I have seen include Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Heath Shuler, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Jason Campbell, and Mark Brunell, among others. This year, it's the Rex Grossman and John Beck show. Doesn't really inspire much confidence. The Skins are ranked 20th in total offense, and are smack dab in the middle in terms of passing offense. But that ranking will most likely go down as the Skins continue to be unproductive on offense. Andrew Luck would immediately legitimize the Redskins' quarterback position. What the Redskins would have to give up to get Luck? Probably their picks in the upcoming draft and maybe a starter on defense, such as Brian Orakpo. The Colts need an overhaul on defense in general, and would probably want the Skins's best defensive player, which IS Orakpo. As much as I like what Orakpo brings to the table, I like what Luck brings to the QB position even more.
3) Seattle Seahawks (2-5): They still rank near the bottom in most offensive categories. They CANNOT score points. They had a loss against Cleveland in the form of a 6-3 snoozer! Defensively they are not horrible, but could be better. Offensively, other than Sidney Rice, none of the names really stick out. Other than their draft picks, there aren't really any standout players on the Seahawks that the Colts would be just dying to trade the Luck pick for. But, the Seahawks are in that category of teams that desperately need a quarterback. So don't count them out as contenders!
2) Denver Broncos (2-5): Tim Tebow is a dumpster fire wrapped in a train wreck wrapped in some other kind of disaster. Why the Broncos took him in the first round in 2010 is beyond me. Yeah, he is a great guy, I'm certainly not questioning that. But as a quarterback, he is a disaster. He can't read defenses, holds on to the ball too long because of it, and makes too many mistakes. He also has that elongated passing motion that doesn't work in the NFL. The Detroit Lions' defense absolutely spanked Tebow on just about every play this past Sunday! The Broncos have two other quarterbacks in Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn. Both of their contracts expire at the end of this season, and I am sure both want out of Denver. The Broncos are ranked 28th in total offense and 30th in passing offense. Drafting Andrew Luck would get the Denver fans to stop drooling on themselves over Tebow. Denver fans are also used to the idea of a quarterback from Stanford coming in and taking them to the Promised Land that is the Super Bowl. What can the Broncos offer in a trade to Indy? Other than their entire 2012 draft, not a whole lot. Maybe Knowshawn Moreno. Maybe a couple of average defenders. An aging Champ Bailey? Nah. The Broncos are definitely worthy of getting the Andrew Luck pick. However, QB is not their only issue.
1) Miami Dolphins (0-7): Yep! Still the most deserving team. Like I have said before, Offensively, the Dolphins have some pretty good players. What they lack is a legit quarterback to get those players the ball. Defensively, they need some help, as they are ranked in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories. But there will be a new coach in town next year, as Tony Sparano (who looks like a guy who should be wearing a velvet jogging suit into an Atlantic City casino) will be fired at the end of the season, if not before then. Bill Cowher's name keeps getting thrown around as a possible candiate for their next head coach. Whoever is the next coach would relish in the idea of having that Andrew Luck pick. What would the Colts want in trade? Probably the one player the Dolphins wouldn't want to give up, that being Jake Long, the right tackle, who protects the QB's blind side. But still, the Dolphins would probably still pull the trigger on that trade if it means having their first franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired.
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